Does Warm Weather Cool Voters Down? How Temperature Shocks Impact Climate Concerns, Voting, and Policy Preferences

• In Event: Extreme Heat, Health, and Urban Adaptation

Abstract

We explore how regional temperature variations in OECD countries shape political behaviour by altering how individuals evaluate the trade-offs between climate risks and the economic costs of climate policy. Using individual-level survey data combined with regional temperature anomalies and electoral outcomes, we show that exposure to higher temperatures increases climate concern and support for parties with stronger environmental agendas, while reducing support for extreme and anti-establishment parties. Our central finding is that these responses reflect a political economy of trade-offs rather than a simple increase in environmental preferences. Temperature shocks simultaneously raise awareness of climate risks and heighten concerns about the economic consequences of green transition policies. As a result, public support for climate action becomes conditional on how its costs are distributed and mitigated. Individuals do not simply become “greener”; they demand policy packages that combine environmental ambition with credible economic protection. These dynamics are strongly heterogeneous across generations, with direct implications for policy design. Older voters, who are more exposed to near-term transition costs, exhibit the most pronounced response: they become more supportive of climate action and greener parties, but also express significantly greater concern about labour-market disruption, energy costs, and broader economic impacts. Crucially, this group shows substantially higher demand for compensatory measures, including job transition support, social protection, and energy cost relief. Younger individuals also display increased climate concern, but their perceived economic risks and demand for compensation change little. We show that these preference shifts translate into political outcomes. At the individual level, temperature shocks increase support for parties that emphasise environmental protection, consistent with an issue-ownership logic. At the aggregate level, warmer years are associated with lower vote shares for extreme and anti-establishment parties, indicating that well-salient climate risks can generate political moderation when mainstream parties offer credible policy responses. Taken together, our findings suggest that public support for ambitious climate policy depends critically on policy design. Climate shocks increase demand for action, but also amplify concerns about its economic consequences, especially among older voters. Policies that fail to address these distributional concerns risk undermining political support, even as climate risks become more salient. By contrast, policy packages that integrate mitigation with targeted compensation—particularly in labour markets, energy affordability, and social protection—are more likely to sustain broad and durable political coalitions for the green transition.

Author

• Konstantinos Matakos, KAPSARC
  Presenting Author