How Hurricanes Reshape Rental Housing Markets: Evidence from a Quarter Century of Severe Storms

• In Event: Kaleidoscope of Impacts on Urban Rental Markets: Arrivals of High-Profile Firms, LIHTC, Filtering, and Natural Disasters

Abstract

Hurricanes can have profound and lasting effects on rental housing markets. Beyond the immediate physical destruction of buildings and infrastructure, these events damage housing stock, reduce available units, displace tenants, and disrupt critical social and economic support networks. While the short-term impacts of natural disasters are well documented, less is known about how hurricanes reshape rental markets over the long term and how these effects vary across different types of renters, properties, and neighborhoods. This paper examines the dynamic and heterogeneous impacts of hurricanes on rental housing markets across the state of Florida. Using an original, geocoded, building-level dataset covering major metropolitan areas from 2000 to 2025, we estimate a series of hyperlocal regression models to identify the time-varying effects of hurricane exposure on key rental market outcomes. These outcomes include rents, vacancy rates, new construction activity, building transaction prices, and capitalization rates, allowing for a comprehensive assessment of both demand- and supply-side responses. Our empirical approach enables us to uncover substantial heterogeneity in treatment effects. We find that impacts differ significantly by unit type (e.g., small versus large units), building characteristics (e.g., age, size, and quality), and neighborhood demographics, including income levels and renter composition. Additionally, variation in local land-use regulations and zoning constraints plays an important role in shaping recovery trajectories. We also distinguish between the effects of storm severity and the cumulative impacts of repeated hurricane exposure, providing new insights into how frequency and intensity interact to influence market outcomes over time. Importantly, the analysis considers the role of policy interventions, including the presence of affordable housing developments and post-disaster recovery programs aimed at supporting vulnerable renters. These factors help explain why some communities recover more quickly and equitably than others. Taken together, our findings will highlight the complex interplay of competing supply and demand shocks that emerge in the wake of hurricanes. By identifying which households and housing segments are most affected, this study provides actionable insights for policymakers, planners, and housing practitioners seeking to design more resilient, equitable, and adaptive responses to natural disasters in rental housing markets.

Author

• Anthony W. Orlando, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona
  Presenting Author