The Impact of Maltreatment Investigations on Child Wellbeing

• In Event: Mandatory Reporting, Institutional Variation, and Child Wellbeing: Novel Evidence from the Child Welfare System

Abstract

Child Protective Services (CPS) investigations represent one of the most common ways the state intervenes in family life in the United States. By the time they reach age 18, an estimated 37 percent of children will have been the subject of a CPS investigation. Despite how widespread these interactions are, there is surprisingly limited causal evidence on what investigations actually do for children and families. Much of the existing research relies on simple comparisons that may confound the effects of investigations with the underlying risks that prompted them. In this study, we examine the impact of CPS investigations using detailed, linked administrative data from Michigan. Our dataset includes the full universe of hotline reports - both those screened in for investigation and those screened out - between 2017 and 2022. These records are merged with statewide public school data, allowing us to track children’s subsequent involvement with CPS as well as key educational outcomes. To address selection bias, we employ a research design that leverages the quasi-random assignment of hotline screeners. Because screeners vary in their tendency to screen in cases, this provides a source of exogenous variation in investigation likelihood. We use subsequent CPS contact as a proxy for child safety and analyze educational measures such as chronic absenteeism, standardized test scores, and high school graduation. While simple comparisons suggest that investigated children experience worse outcomes, our instrumental variables estimates paint a different picture. For children on the margin of being investigated, investigations have small but positive effects. We find modest reductions in future CPS involvement, though these estimates are not statistically significant. For educational outcomes, we observe no meaningful effects on absenteeism or test scores, but we do find a modest, marginally significant increase in high school graduation rates. Importantly, our marginal treatment effect analysis uncovers substantial heterogeneity. Investigations appear to benefit higher-risk children, while potentially harming lower-risk children. These results underscore the importance of carefully targeting CPS investigations rather than uniformly expanding or reducing them.

Author

• Jason Baron, Duke University
  Presenting Author