Rural CTE Dual Enrollment Pathways: Participation, Labor Market Alignment, and Postsecondary Outcomes

• In Event: Evaluating Equity, Access, and Outcomes in Workforce and Technical Education

Abstract

Background: Rural communities face persistent workforce challenges while rural students often lack clear pathways into the jobs that their local economies need filled. Career and Technical Education (CTE) dual enrollment (DE) pathways offer a promising strategy for connecting rural youth to meaningful careers while supporting regional workforce development. North Carolina's Career and College Promise (CCP) program enables high school students to pursue college coursework designed to lead to a workforce-focused credential. Rural students participate in this pathway at more than twice the rate of their urban peers. Whether these pathways are living up to their workforce development potential depends on who participates, what programs they pursue, and whether those programs align with the labor market realities of rural communities.

Research Questions: We address three questions: (1) Who participates in the 11 most-pursued CTE dual enrollment program areas in rural North Carolina, and how does participation vary by student demographics and geography? (2) How well do the programs rural students pursue align with local labor market needs? (3) What is the association between CTE DE pathway participation and postsecondary credential attainment?

Methods: We draw on administrative data linking K–12, public postsecondary, and National Student Clearinghouse data for nine cohorts of 11th graders from 2012-13 to 2020-21. We examine participation across the 11 most-pursued CTE program areas by student demographics and across 16 NC “Prosperity Zone” regions. To assess alignment, we construct a composite index of projected job openings, job growth, and wages for occupations linked to each program area, comparing enrollment patterns to local labor market demand. We then use propensity score weighting to estimate the association between pathway participation and postsecondary credential attainment within 3 and 6 years of high school, accounting for observable student and school characteristics.

Findings: Nearly 10 percent of rural NC high school students pursued a CTE DE pathway—more than twice the rate of urban students. Participation varied by program area and gender: male students concentrated in welding and vehicle maintenance; female students in health and teaching fields. About 41 percent of rural CTE pathway students earned a postsecondary credential within six years, with the most common credential type varying markedly across program areas. Preliminary labor market alignment analysis reveals weak correlations between rural enrollment patterns and our composite labor market demand index across sub-regions, suggesting there is a disconnect between program choice and local workforce needs. We will refine these analyses and update them to incorporate recently released labor market data with projections through 2034. Estimates of the association between participation and credential attainment using a propensity score weighting approach are forthcoming as well and will be ready for the conference.

Implications: Rural CTE dual enrollment pathways have the potential to serve as a workforce development tool, but realizing that potential requires that students pursue programs aligned with local job opportunities. North Carolina's experience illustrates how a statewide dual enrollment policy produces heterogeneous outcomes across diverse rural labor markets, with direct implications for program design, student advising, and rural economic development.

Author

• Brian M Phillips, RAND Corporation
  Presenting Author