Poster #148 - Do Local Climate Pledges Backfire? Evidence on Emissions Shifting Across Regions

• In Event: Friday Poster Reception

Abstract

Subnational governments such as cities, states, and regions, have emerged as key actors inclimate policy, often pledging ambitious emissions reductions in the absence of comprehensivenational action. While these commitments are widely viewed as beneficial, an underexploredconcern is that they may generate unintended negative effects by displacing emissions toneighboring or hierarchically related jurisdictions. This study investigates whether subnationalclimate commitments lead to problem shifting (spatial relocation of emissions) or burden shifting(non-compliance by non-pledging areas), thereby undermining aggregate mitigation outcomes.

The main research question is: Do subnational emissions reduction commitments reduce totalemissions, or do they induce spatial redistribution that offsets local gains? To answer this, weconstruct a novel multi-level panel dataset integrating emissions data from Emissions Databasefor Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), subnational climate commitments from ClimActor,and Global Energy Monitor (GEM) data on power plants and steel plants. These datasets areharmonized using administrative boundaries from Global Administrative Areas (GADM) toestablish hierarchical and spatial relationships (parent–child–neighbors) across jurisdictions.

We employ a combination of spatial difference-in-differences (DiD) and event study designs,leveraging the timing of subnational pledges as quasi-exogenous shocks. The empirical strategydistinguishes between local treatment effects and spillover effects through structured spatialweights capturing adjacency and administrative hierarchy. Additional validation is conductedusing sectoral emissions and power plant and steel plant dynamics to identify mechanismsconsistent with emissions relocation.

Preliminary findings indicate that in some subnational regions, while pledging jurisdictionsexhibit statistically significant reductions in local emissions, these reductions are partially offsetby increases in emissions in neighboring and economically linked regions. The magnitude ofthese spillovers will later be verified by energy-intensive industries through the plants. Theseresults suggest that subnational commitments may not uniformly translate into net globalemissions reductions and can, under certain conditions, exacerbate spatial inequality inenvironmental burdens.

The findings have important policy implications. They highlight the need for coordination acrossjurisdictions and the incorporation of spatial spillovers into climate policy design. Withoutmechanisms to address leakage and redistribution, decentralized climate action mayinadvertently undermine its own objectives. Future research will extend this framework toevaluate policy designs that mitigate these unintended consequences and enhance theeffectiveness of subnational climate governance.

Author

• Yuetong Zhang, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
  Presenting Author