Poster #7 - Work-related disability duration and poverty risk among working-age Americans: a longitudinal analysis

• In Event: Saturday Poster Luncheon

Abstract

Disability is a significant but understudied risk factor for long-term poverty among working-age adults in the United States. While cross-sectional data consistently shows higher poverty rates among people with disabilities relative to those without, annual poverty statistics may not entirely capture the dynamic nature of both disability and poverty and could mask the role that disability plays in long-term economic hardship. Despite the significance of the relationship between poverty and disability, updated longitudinal estimates are lacking, with the most recent analysis covering data through 2010. Updated analyses that reflect shifts in disability program participation, the economic disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the passage of the Affordable Care Act, among other policy changes, are needed. This paper addresses this gap using the 2020 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) panel, covering 2020 to 2023, to provide new longitudinal estimates of short- and long-term poverty among working-age adults by disability status and duration of disability. We focus on working-age adults and construct a measure of disability duration ranging from zero to four years, capturing the full spectrum from no disability to permanent disability. Poverty is measured using the official definition and examined through two complementary approaches, including poverty rates by disability duration and average months spent in poverty. Both are computed across three disability definitions: the ACS six-question disability measure, work disability, and job disability. This multi-measure approach addresses some of the known challenges in disability measurement and allows for an assessment of the robustness of findings.Preliminary findings reveal several notable patterns. Disability prevalence decreases consistently with duration across all three definitions, reflecting that episodic and short-term disability is more common than permanent disability. However, a slight increase in prevalence is observed among those reporting disability in all four years, suggesting a distinct permanently disabled subpopulation with unique characteristics. Poverty rates increase with disability duration overall, but the relationship is not strictly monotonic as rates increase sharply from no disability to short-term disability but show non-linear patterns at intermediate durations before increasing again among those with the longest disability durations. This pattern is consistent across all three disability definitions suggesting a characteristic of the disability-poverty relationship.These findings have direct implications for policy. The non-monotonic relationship between disability duration and poverty suggests that different subgroups of people with disabilities face distinct economic risks that may require targeted policy responses. Eligibility criteria for some programs largely treat disability as binary and permanent, yet the episodic nature of disability documented here points to the need for more flexible program designs that better serve working-age adults across the full spectrum of disability experience. Updated longitudinal estimates are essential for informing evidence-based policies that adequately address the needs of this population.

Author

• Montserrat Avila Acosta, Syracuse University
  Presenting Author