MO Scholars: Initial Demographics and Early Achievement in Missouri’s ESA Program

• In Event: The Latest Research on Private School Choice: Public Opinion, Participation, and Program Effects

Abstract

Missouri’s MOScholars program, a tax-credit-funded education savings account initiative, has expanded rapidly while public evidence on who participates and how students perform remains limited. In 2024-25 the program received a $50 million direct state appropriation, leading to rapid enrollment growth. This paper from the Policy Research in Missouri Education (PRiME) Center provides an early descriptive and analytic portrait of the program’s first years, as the official research and data partner to the MO Scholars program. We ask two questions: Who is using MOScholars as the program scales, and what do the first available achievement and growth results suggest about student outcomes in an ESA setting? We draw on multi-year administrative program data assembled from Educational Assistance Organization rosters, FACTS, and ClassWallet, which permit analysis of enrollment, award amounts, gender, race/ethnicity, grade level, and verified IEP status. For the performance component, we use the standardized test submissions incorporated into the program’s official performance report and estimate achievement and growth in math and English language arts using PRiME’s cross-assessment standardization and value-added approach where student-level records can be linked over time. We present descriptive trends overall and by subgroup, with additional attention to variation across participating EAOs and the implications of working with multiple norm-referenced assessments in a school-choice program. Known descriptive findings already show rapid expansion in the program’s first four years. Participation increased from 1,363 students in 2022–23 to 6,411 in 2025–26, and total awards reached $80.9 million. Across these years, roughly 30% of participants had a verified IEP, though students without verified IEPs made up a growing share of the program. Participation remained relatively balanced by gender, racial/ethnic composition was fairly stable over time, and growth was concentrated in the elementary grades, especially among early entrants. The conference paper will add the first-ever MOScholars achievement and growth evidence from the third-year report, providing an initial view of academic performance alongside these demographic patterns. ESA debates often move faster than the evidence base. By pairing multi-year participation trends with newly available student outcome evidence, the study offers policymakers a more grounded view of program reach, equity, and accountability. The findings should inform future reporting, implementation, and evaluation of MOScholars and other state choice programs serving students with disabilities and low-income families.

Author

• Collin Hitt, Saint Louis University
  Presenting Author