The effects of resource shocks on refugee education in Uganda

• In Event: Migration & Population Issues in International Contexts

Abstract

How is refugee access to education impacted by aid cuts in the Global South? In 2023, the World Food Program and the UN Refugee Agency began implementing a process known as ‘prioritization’ in which the cash and food assistance refugee households receive was reduced based on measures of household vulnerability. For example, in Uganda, refugees were separated into three aid categories based a vulnerability score had aid reduced to receive nothing, a 50 percent reduction, or maintained the previous amount. These aid allocations were determined based on a vulnerability score set by the World Food Program. We use a regression discontinuity design, proprietary census and finance data from UNHCR and WFP, and three rounds of an original panel survey of 5,400 households to measure the causal effects of aid cuts by comparing households just above and below the vulnerability score threshold. We track the impacts of aid reductions through three waves of a panel survey first implemented following the initial aid reductions in 2023. We find that the effects of the partial aid cuts have negatively impacted refugee children’s participation in education and have caused an increase in child labor, with larger effects for those who receive less aid and worsening effects over time. In addition to the household aid cuts implemented through prioritization, the closure of USAID in 2025 introduced additional supply-side shocks in the education sector thus impacting resources for the schools both refugees and national children attend. In addition to the regression discontinuity analysis described above, we examine whether and how supply- and demand-side shocks interact to shape refugee inclusion in schools following the added shock of USAID’s closure in conjunction with household aid cuts. This research contributes to the literature on the effects of cash transfers and support for education, including in humanitarian settings. While the benefits of introducing cash transfers are well-documented, we know less about what happens when they are taken away. Findings from this work thus contribute to the academic literature on education finance and cash transfers, as well as to urgent policy questions about the impacts of resource reductions for vulnerable populations.

Author

• Shelby Frances Carvalho, Stanford University
  Presenting Author