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Examining the Effects of a Re-enrollment Campaign for Community College Students Near Completion

Thursday, November 5, 1:45 to 3:15pm, Property: Boston Marriott Copley Place, Floor: 3rd Floor, Room: Berkeley

Abstract

An estimated 39 million adults in the United States have earned college credits but left without a credential (NSC Research Center, 2023). Among these former students, those who stopped out after making substantial progress toward a degree represent a particularly promising target for re-engagement, yet the likelihood of completion declines with each additional semester away (DesJardins et al., 2006; Shapiro et al., 2019). As more than 30 states have adopted performance-based funding models that tie institutional resources to completion outcomes (Mullen & Norris, 2025), identifying scalable strategies to re-engage near-completers has become a policy priority. This is especially true for adult learners, who face distinct barriers including work and family obligations, expired financial aid, and difficulty navigating institutional systems after extended absences (Jabbari et al., 2020; Mabel & Britton, 2018).
This study evaluates the Near Completion Campaign, a re-enrollment initiative launched in 2022 at a large public community college in the American West. Students identified through institutional degree audits as being within a few courses of earning a credential were randomly assigned to receive personalized outreach detailing their remaining requirements, financial support for enrollment costs, and completion scholarships. The campaign targeted two groups through parallel randomized controlled trials: stopped-out students who had not enrolled for at least one semester (n = 1,726) and unregistered students who were enrolled the prior term but had not yet registered for the upcoming fall semester (n = 1,915). We also examine heterogeneity in treatment effects by age to assess whether the campaign differentially benefited nontraditional-age (25+) students.Overall, the campaign produced substantial gains. Among stopped-out students, treated students were 6.1 percentage points more likely to re-enroll within one year (p < .01; 46% increase) and 2.3 percentage points more likely to earn a credential (p < .01), more than doubling the control mean. Among unregistered students, treated students were 8.2 percentage points more likely to re-enroll (p < .001; 34% increase) and 5.6 percentage points more likely to earn a credential (p < .001; 95% increase), with effects persisting over two years. Age-based subgroup analyses show that treatment effects among stopped-out students were concentrated among those aged 25 and older. Older stopped-out students were 8.0 percentage points more likely to re-enroll within one year (p < .01; 76% increase) and 4.5 percentage points more likely to earn a credential within two years (p < .01; 132% increase). No significant differences by age were observed among unregistered students.These findings suggest that re-enrollment campaigns combining personalized outreach with financial support can produce meaningful gains in re-enrollment and credential attainment, particularly among adult learners who have stopped out. The campaign also generated over $3 million in net revenue through the state’s performance-based funding model, suggesting this approach is both effective and financially sustainable. As institutions invest in strategies to raise completion rates, these results point to the value of targeting re-engagement efforts toward older near-completers, a growing population that may be especially responsive to intervention.

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