Do LMI Incentives Shift EV Adoption? Evidence from Connecticut’s CHEAPR and a national policy-scan.

• In Event: Advancing Equity? Evidence from Healthcare, Labor Markets, Energy Policy, and State Governance

Abstract

Introduction/Background:
Electric vehicle (EV) adoption is expanding across the United States, but benefits remain unevenly distributed as lower-income households face persistent barriers of affordability, credit access, and charging availability. In response, a growing number of states, utilities, and local agencies have introduced low- and moderate-income (LMI) EV programs; the national inventory used in this study identifies 70+ such programs across the country, including purchase rebates, used-EV incentives, scrap-and-replace programs, and charging support. Connecticut is an instructive policy laboratory: since 2019, the state has introduced income‑qualified “Rebate+” adders for new and used EVs, moved toward point‑of‑sale delivery, and expanded statutory equity goals under Public Act 22‑25, while utilities have rolled out complementary EV charging rebates that can reduce home wiring and charger costs. This policy context raises questions about whether targeted EV incentives can meaningfully shift adoption patterns toward underserved communities.

Purpose/Research Question:
This study examines whether Connecticut's equity-oriented EV reforms change who adopts EVs and where adoption grows. Specifically: (1) What is CHEAPR's causal impact on EV adoption? (2) How do effects vary across income levels and energy-burdened communities? (3) Are targeted Rebate+ subsidies more effective than standard incentives for underserved populations? (4) Does local charging infrastructure condition subsidy effectiveness? 

Methods:
The analysis combines a national policy inventory with Connecticut-specific empirical analysis. First, a comprehensive scan identifies 70+ U.S. state, utility, and local LMI EV programs to contextualize Connecticut's approach. Second, the core analysis uses a ZIP code–level panel dataset spanning 2018–2025, combining EV registration data, CHEAPR rebate disbursement records, U.S. Census socioeconomic indicators, measures of household energy burden, and geocoded charging station data from the Alternative Fuels Data Center. A difference-in-differences and event study framework is employed to compare pre/post-reform changes in EV adoption across ZIP codes stratified by income quintiles and vulnerability indices. To address potential endogeneity the study includes controls for local characteristics and tests alternative specifications, including models with infrastructure–subsidy interaction terms.

Expected Findings:
The study aims to estimate the magnitude of the causal effect of CHEAPR subsidies on EV adoption and to quantify heterogeneity in these effects across income groups, energy-burdened communities, and levels of charging infrastructure availability. CHEAPR Rebate+ is expected to show modestly stronger EV adoption growth in lower-income ZIP codes relative to higher-income areas, though effects may vary by community type and baseline readiness. Charging availability is anticipated to amplify subsidy effects. The study is currently in a preliminary stage, and therefore full empirical results cannot yet be presented.

Conclusion/Implications:
By providing causal evidence from a mid-sized Northeastern state, this study contributes to a limited but growing literature on subnational EV policy effectiveness and equity. The findings are expected to inform the design of subsidy programs by clarifying the role of targeting and infrastructure complementarity in expanding EV adoption. The results will be relevant for policymakers seeking to balance efficiency and equity in transportation electrification strategies and may guide future adjustments to programs like CHEAPR, particularly in improving access for underserved communities.

Author

• Snehal Kale, Georgia Institute of Technology
  Presenting Author