CE Arrests in Trump 2.0 and Their Impacts

• In Event: Effects of Aggressive Immigration Enforcement

Abstract

ICE arrests under Trump 2.0 have increased in every region of the U.S., compared to arrests under Biden and Trump 1.0. However, the increases are small in some metro areas and greater in others. In an earlier paper,  East and Velasquez 2024) we analyzed the economic effects of the Secure Communities Program, an earlier policy of immigration enforcement.   Secure Communities led to over 454,000 deportations between 2008 and 20014. Using a difference-in-differences event study method, the staggered rollout of the program, and estimates of likely unauthorized immigrants, we found that the program reduced the level of economic activity. These declines included reductions in the labor supply of undocumented workers and high-skilled, college-educated mothers, largely due to reduced availability of household services. We further showed increased cost of outsourcing household production, due to reduced undocumented immigrants’ labor supply.In this paper we use a similar method to provide the first causal, nationally comprehensive empirical analysis of the labor market impacts of heightened immigration enforcement during the second Trump administration. While enforcement has increased everywhere, we take advantage of the fact that the increases have been uneven across geographic areas to classify areas as treated or control and then implement an event study and difference-in-differences design. Using arrest data from every one of ICE’s administrative regions (Areas of Responsibility), we identify the location and dates of local enforcement surges.  These constitute the events in our difference-in-differences event study. For data on work activity, we use the Current Population survey. We find that areas that experienced particularly large increases in the number of arrests also experienced a decrease in work among likely undocumented immigrants who remain in the U.S., compared to areas with smaller increases in arrests. We again find an increase in the cost of child care.  In contrast, we find no evidence of positive spillover effects to U.S.-born workers.

Author

• Chloe N East, University of Colorado - Boulder
  Presenting Author