Effects of ICE Surges on the Restaurant Industry

• In Event: Effects of Aggressive Immigration Enforcement

Abstract

Heightened ICE activity under Trump 2.0 has raised questions about its economic effects on local communities. In this paper, we address this question by focusing on the effects on fast food restaurants. Multiple media accounts have identified restaurants as likely to be most affected by reductions in the supply of workers and in customer visits. Using granular cellphone location data, we examine the effects of ICE surges in 2025 and 2026 on restaurants in Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami and Minneapolis. These six cities experienced the largest surges of ICE arrests in 2025 and through March 2026. In three of these cities—Chicago, Los Angeles and Minneapolis, ICE personnel conducted arrests, without cooperation from local enforcement authorities. In Texas and Florida,  state officials signed agreements with ICE for local law enforcement to assist ICE  in making arrests. However, local officials in Dallas and Houston, did not fully cooperate with the state’s policies. Our cellphone data measure the number of weekly cellphone visits for each restaurant in the U.S. The data are organized into five  visit duration bins: less than 5 minutes, 5 to 20 minutes, 20 minutes to one hour, one hour to four hours, and more than four hours. Visits of more than four hours likely measure the number of workers at the restaurant. We examine restaurants because they are likely to be heavily affected. Our event studies compare visits to restaurants before, during and after surges in ICE activity. In Chicago. Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles and Miami, observe sufficient variation in census-tract shares of Hispanics to conduct a difference-in-difference event study. For Minneapolis, which has a much lower Hispanic population share and less variation among census tracts, we compare county-level changes in Hennepin County to other central city counties at similar latitudes. Results suggest that ICE activity had negative effects on restaurants.

Author

• Michael Reich, University of California, Berkeley
  Presenting Author