Career Pathways and Credentials: New Evidence on Measurement, Value, and Access

Session Submission Type: Panel

Abstract

Policymakers have increasingly invested in career pathways and short-term credentialing as central strategies for promoting economic mobility and meeting workforce demands. From high school career pathways to industry-recognized credentials and short-term postsecondary certificates, these initiatives are designed to align education with labor market needs. Yet despite rapid expansion, fundamental questions remain unresolved: What counts as participation in career and technical education (CTE)? Which credentials deliver meaningful labor market value? And to what extent are these opportunities equitably accessible across students and regions?
This panel brings together four papers that collectively examine the measurement, value, and access of career pathways and credentials across the education-to-workforce continuum. Using large-scale administrative data from Massachusetts, Texas, and Ohio, the studies provide new evidence on how policy design, definitional choices, and geographic context shape both participation in and returns to career-oriented education.
First, evidence from Massachusetts’ Innovation Career Pathway (ICP) initiative provides causal estimates of the impact of labor market-aligned high school career pathways on career readiness and postsecondary outcomes, offering insight into whether structured partnerships can translate educational experiences into improved labor market trajectories. Second, new evidence from Texas examines the “sheepskin effects” of industry-recognized credentials earned in high school, demonstrating that returns depend critically on alignment with students’ fields of study and vary substantially across demographic groups, raising concerns about equity and efficiency. Third, using data from Ohio community colleges, one study shows that widely used definitions of CTE students yield substantially different populations and outcomes, underscoring how measurement decisions fundamentally shape research conclusions and policy interpretation. Finally, geospatial analysis of short-term certificate programs in Texas reveals uneven geographic access to reskilling opportunities, highlighting how place-based constraints may limit the effectiveness of federal aid expansions such as Short-Term Workforce Pell.
Together, these papers advance a more nuanced understanding of career pathways policy by demonstrating that outcomes depend not only on program participation, but also on how participation is defined, how credentials are structured and aligned, and where opportunities are located. The panel directly informs current policy debates on workforce development, credential expansion, and educational equity by identifying the conditions under which career pathways and credentials can, and cannot, serve as effective tools for economic mobility.

Policy Area

• Education

Chair

• Yerin Yoon, Harvard University

Discussants

• Julian A Hayes, Harvard Graduate School of Education

• Kevin Austin Ganus, Florida State University

Organizer

• Kevin Austin Ganus, Florida State University

Individual Presentations

• Cheapskin Effects? The Heterogeneous Value of Industry-Recognized Certificates Earned by High School Students - Presenting Author: Tasneem Sultana, University of Texas at Austin

• Who Counts? Implications of Competing Definitions of Career and Technical Education Students for Research Findings - Presenting Author: Chenjun Yu, University of Michigan; Non-Presenting Co-Author: Peter Bahr, Institute for the Future of Work; Non-Presenting Co-Author: Rooney Columbus, University of Michigan; Non-Presenting Co-Author: Jennifer May-Trifiletti, Ithaka S+R; Non-Presenting Co-Author: Quintin Kreth, York University

• Geography of Reskilling and Upskilling for Adult Learners - Presenting Author: Catalina Vasquez, University of Texas at Austin