Sustainable Secondary CTE Systems: Evidence on Postsecondary Pathways, Teacher Retention, and Local Labor Markets

Session Submission Type: Panel

Abstract

As the national conversation shifts from "college for all" toward "college and career readiness," secondary Career and Technical Education (CTE) has gained increasing attention as a centerpiece of workforce and education policy. Indeed, 33 state governors highlighted CTE and workforce development as explicit priorities in their 2025 State of the State addresses (Bloomquist & Peisach, 2025), reflecting CTE's growing role as a core component of the high school curriculum—one that exposes students to career pathways, supports job exploration, and connects learners to postsecondary opportunities through articulated program pathways. Yet rapid growth and expansion inevitably raise important questions about sustainability, particularly around program quality, student access, and educator capacity. Building sustainable and effective secondary CTE systems requires understanding not only how these programs shape students' college and career readiness, but also whether schools can recruit and retain the qualified educators needed to deliver them. Using administrative data from Massachusetts and Florida alongside nationally representative panel data, the four papers in this panel examine these questions—offering causal evidence on how state-level CTE policies and local labor markets shape student postsecondary pathways and educator retention, before zooming out to explore how CTE participation in high school relates to students' college aspirations at the national level.

The first paper evaluates Massachusetts' Exploratory program, which gives 9th-grade students structured exposure to multiple CTE pathways. Leveraging exogenous variation from program rollout, it estimates effects on students' subsequent CTE participation and postsecondary outcomes—informing how early exploration can support more inclusive pathways. The second paper estimates the impact of statewide articulation agreements in Massachusetts, which offer CTE students community college credit for prior learning. Using a stacked difference-in-differences design, it finds modest gains in two-year credential attainment concentrated among middle-achieving students, suggesting articulation agreements help those on the margin of college completion. The third paper turns to the sustainability of the CTE educator pipeline, using Florida administrative data to examine whether local labor market conditions drive CTE teacher turnover. It finds particular vulnerability in high-wage and STEM-aligned fields, where teachers' industry-aligned skills command strong outside options—revealing a structural challenge that threatens the long-term stability of CTE programs in the fields where they matter most. The fourth paper broadens the lens nationally, using the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009—which tracks students up to eight years after high school graduation—to examine how CTE participation relates to students' expectations of enrolling in a four-year degree. Findings raise equity concerns, as CTE participants are more likely to be uncertain about bachelor's degree enrollment, an important signal for federal policymakers committed to college and career readiness.

Together, these four studies provide policy-relevant evidence on what it takes to build secondary CTE systems that are not only effective in improving student outcomes, but sustainable in the face of labor market pressures and structural inequities.

Policy Area

• Education

Chair

• Hannah Kistler, University at Albany

Discussants

• Walter G Ecton, University of Michigan

• Jay Plasman, Johns Hopkins University

Organizer

• Yerin Yoon, Harvard University

Individual Presentations

• Exploring Pathways: The Impact of Early CTE Exploration on Participation and Postsecondary Outcomes - Presenting Author: Yunee H Yoon, Boston University; Non-Presenting Co-Author: Yerin Yoon, Harvard University; Non-Presenting Co-Author: Shaun M Dougherty, Boston College

• Credits on the Margin: Statewide Articulation Agreements and Postsecondary Outcomes for Career and Technical Education Students - Presenting Author: Julian A Hayes, Harvard Graduate School of Education

• Local Labor Market Conditions and Career and Technical Education (CTE) Teacher Turnover - Presenting Author: Kevin Austin Ganus, Florida State University

• College or No College? A Regression-Based Analysis of CTE Participation and Bachelor's Degree Aspirations - Presenting Author: Sakina Sahabi, University at Albany