Uncertainty in Higher Education: Admission, Aid, and Costs

Session Submission Type: Panel

Abstract

Students face substantial uncertainty throughout the college-going process, including whether they will be admitted, how much financial aid they will receive, and what college will ultimately cost. They must also consider longer-term uncertainty about debt repayment and post-college outcomes. These uncertainties can discourage college enrollment or otherwise influence students’ decisions. In response, states and institutions have implemented policies aimed at reducing uncertainty and improving transparency around admissions, financial aid, and costs. Understanding whether and how these policies shape student behavior is critical for designing effective higher education policy.

This panel brings together four empirical papers that evaluate policies and practices intended to improve college access, affordability, and success. The first two papers examine state-level policies designed to reduce uncertainty about admissions and financial aid. Heather Little studies a guaranteed admission policy in Wisconsin, analyzing its effects on application and enrollment behavior at the state flagship. Catherine Lawlor and coauthors evaluate a first-dollar promise scholarship in Indiana, estimating its impacts on enrollment, degree completion, and early-career earnings. The remaining papers examine sources of financial uncertainty during college. Guan-Fu Chou analyzes discrepancies between posted and actual off-campus living costs in colleges’ cost-of-attendance measures, exploring both the causes of these differences and their associations with student outcomes. Annemarie Schweinert and coauthors study Texas’s B-On-Time program, a conditional grant that converted to a loan if academic requirements were not met, and estimate its effects on student outcomes in the short- and long-run.

Together, these papers provide new evidence on whether uncertainty in admissions, aid, and college costs meaningfully changes student behavior and outcomes. They also highlight that not all policies operate as intended and may have heterogeneous effects across student populations. By examining policy interventions and unintended sources of uncertainty, this panel offers insights for policymakers and institutional leaders seeking to design more transparent and effective systems to promote college access and student success.

Policy Area

• Education

Chair

• Zhengren Zhu, Vassar College

Discussants

• Julia A Turner, Northwestern University

• Jonathan Andrew Smith, Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (THECB)

Organizer

• Heather Kain Little, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Individual Presentations

• The Wisconsin Guarantee: A Top Percent Policy with an Early Action Requirement  - Presenting Author: Heather Kain Little, University of Wisconsin-Madison

• The Effect of a Promise Scholarship: Evaluating Indiana's 21st Century Scholars Program - Presenting Author: Catherine Lawlor, Boston College

• Unaudited Cost Reporting in Higher Education: Spatial Competition and Consequences for Low-Income Borrowers - Presenting Author: Guan-Fu Chou, University of Michigan Ann Arbor

• The Role of Student Debt on Major Choice and Labor Market Outcomes - Presenting Author: Annemarie Elizabeth Schweinert, University of Missouri-Columbia