Economic Policy and Child Welfare Trajectories: From System Involvement to Reunification

Session Submission Type: Panel

Abstract

Child welfare involvement is among the most inequitable intersections of policy and family life in the United States. The families most likely to face investigation and removal are also those with the fewest economic resources, and a growing body of evidence suggests this is not coincidental. Yet the policy levers linking economic conditions to child welfare outcomes remain poorly understood, and the financial burdens the system imposes on vulnerable families are rarely centered in research or reform. This panel argues that child welfare outcomes cannot be understood in isolation from the broader economic policy environment in which families live. How states design their safety nets, structure child support enforcement for families with children in foster care, adopt or forgo federal program flexibility, and train frontline workers to exercise discretion, these choices have real and measurable consequences for whether children are investigated, enter care, how long they stay, and whether families are ultimately reunified. Four empirical studies, spanning quantitative and qualitative methods, examine these mechanisms across different levels of the system and, together, make the case that reducing inequity in child welfare requires confronting the economic policies embedded within it.The first paper (Hong, Berger, Pac, & Rhodes) constructs a composite measure of state safety net generosity across nine programs and links it to CPS investigation rates using NCANDS data from 2004 to 2019. Two-way fixed-effects models find that a $1,000 increase in safety net support is associated with a 4% decline in investigation rates, with slightly larger effects for Black children under age five. Cash and near-cash benefits seem to drive these reductions, consistent with an income-pathway mechanism.The second paper (Ko & Cancian) examines cost-recovery child support orders in Wisconsin, which require parents of children in foster care to reimburse the state for placement costs. Using administrative data from 2005 to 2019 and an instrumental variables design exploiting judge- and county-level variation in order rates, the study finds these orders increase foster care duration and substantially reduce reunification probability, with effects concentrated in the first year. These findings challenge the fiscal rationale for such policies and support recent federal guidance to curtail them.The third paper (Thomas & Nadon) draws on qualitative interviews with 30 frontline workers and supervisors across Illinois agencies to examine how worker discretion shapes the economic experiences of CPS-involved parents. Findings reveal substantial variation in whether workers connect families to supports or enforce financial obligations, driven by agency policy, geography, and individual judgment largely invisible to policymakers and data systems.The fourth paper (Allbright-Campos, Ginther, & Johnson-Motoyama) evaluates Title IV-E waiver demonstrations using difference-in-differences and event-study methods applied to national data from 2004 to 2017. Waivers targeting parenting supports, differential response, and evidence-based programs consistently reduce both CPS reports and foster care entry, demonstrating that targeted federal flexibility can produce meaningful improvements at scale.Together, these papers advance a research agenda that examines economic hardship as a condition to be alleviated rather than a marker of risk, and that aligns child welfare and social policy in the interest of keeping families safely together.

Policy Area

• Family and Child Policy

Chair

• Kierra Marie Pettit Sattler, University of North Carolina Greensboro

Discussants

• Lenna Nepomnyaschy, Rutgers University - New Brunswick

• Darcey H Merritt, The University of Chicago

Organizer

• Anna Ko, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Individual Presentations

• Paid Family Leave and Placement Stability Among Children in Foster Care - Presenting Author: Anna Ko, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Non-Presenting Co-Author: Jessica Erin Pac, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Non-Presenting Co-Author: Kierra Marie Pettit Sattler, University of North Carolina Greensboro

• Child Protective Service Involvement and Parental Economic Precarity: Investigating the Role of Frontline Workers - Presenting Author: Melanie L Nadon, Wayne State University

• The Effects of the Title IV-E Waiver Program in Reducing Child Maltreatment and Foster Care Entry - Presenting Author: Donna K Ginther, University of Kansas

• Understanding “Service Cliffs” Following Reunification from Foster Care for Children and Mothers - Presenting Author: Dylan Jones, University of Wisconsin System