Evaluating the Resilience of Defense-critical Supply and Demand Networks

Session Submission Type: Panel

Abstract

The participants in this panel are among the researchers involved in the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA) Resilient Supply and Demand Networks (RSDN) program. The program focuses on the development of next-generation analytics for reverse stress testing in defense-critical supply chains. The team's application focuses specifically on defense industrial base (DIB) supply chains for essential minerals and rare earth minerals. The team is stress testing supply and demand networks through a combination of survey, analytics, macro-economic modeling, and agent-based simulation.  Their work has focused on a combination of international trade flow of metals as well as high-resolution modeling of discrete manufacturing part flows.

The provided research papers collectively explore the intricate relationship between individual firm behavior, network structure, and systemic stability within complex supply chains. A central theme across the studies is that resilience is not merely an isolated firm characteristic but a product of network dynamics that are inter-connected with firm-level characteristics. In short, the panel provides papers that for the first time bridge firm-level and network-level effects.

An example of this from one of the papers comes from the US defense supply chain for copper. The U.S. copper industry reveals a non-linear relationship where network stability increases rapidly only after firm-level resilience passes a critical threshold. This systemic robustness is heavily influenced by the structural positioning of resilient firms; those in central network positions or acting as "bridging nodes" play a key role in preventing fragmentation. To better diagnose these vulnerabilities, the research introduces new metrics like the resilience metric assortativity (RMA) to quantify how the clustering of resilient or fragile entities affects the propagation of supply chain disruptions.

The role of resilience, particularly through input substitution and visibility, emerges as a vital mechanism for maintaining business and network continuity during disruptions. While traditional models often overstate the severity of shocks by assuming rigid production functions, incorporating an elasticity of substitution reveals that flexible sourcing reduces aggregate volatility and prevents bottlenecks. However, firm-level data from the defense industrial base suggests a counterintuitive tension: increased market competition and supplier diversification do not always translate to higher resilience, as competitive pressures may reduce the incentives for firms to invest in robust strategies.

Finally, the papers emphasize that visibility and communication are essential for efficient resource allocation, particularly in emergency supply chains. While improved visibility reduces coordination failures and shortens the duration of shortages, it must be balanced against the risk of cognitive overload in decision-makers. Collectively, these findings suggest that public policy and disaster response strategies should shift from general oversight toward targeted interventions that strengthen critical network nodes, facilitate realistic production flexibility, and optimize the information environments in which firms operate.

Policy Area

• National & Homeland Security and Crisis Management

Chair

• Noah Dormady, The Ohio State University

Discussant

• John Amedeo Santini, RTX BBN Technologies

Organizer

• John Amedeo Santini, RTX BBN Technologies

Individual Presentations

• Resilience-Metric Assortativity and Structural Fragility in Complex Policy-Relevant Networks - Presenting Author: Jeremie A Fish, Clarkson University

• Why Supplies Run Out: A Laboratory Experiment on Information Constraints in Emergency Supply Chains - Presenting Author: Yiseon Choi, The Ohio State University

• Modeling Input Substitution in Agent-Based Supply Chains for Policy Analysis - Presenting Author: Jonathan Goldstein, RTX BBN