Advances in clean energy under federal policy shifts: dynamic pricing, supply chains and non-targeted incentives

Session Submission Type: Panel

Abstract

Shifting federal policy priorities are driving increasingly diverse and decentralized responses across U.S. states, shaping the energy transition toward vehicle electrification. In this panel, the four papers reveal that energy transitions are not a linear shift toward a single solution but require system-level processes shaped by interacting policies, market behaviors, and supply chain responses. The first paper, authored by Brown et al., highlights the benefits of “policy stacking” across energy sources in the context of the National Energy Modeling System. The second paper by Fournel et al. investigates price competition with high-resolution real-time transaction data to understand conditions under which EV charging operators respond competitively to unexpected demand shifts. The third paper by Guo et al. investigates private sector policy responses to show that EV supply chains adapt to policy uncertainty through diversification but remain constrained by structural dependencies globally. The fourth paper, authored by Liu et al., demonstrates that non-targeted federal incentives such as Opportunity Zones can partially substitute for targeted incentives for EV charging deployment, albeit unevenly across states. 

The first paper, "Stacking Technology and Policy: Drivers for Energy Affordability across the U.S.," uses the National Energy Modeling System to show that energy and climate policy impacts depend on the broader policy mix. Renewable, fossil, nuclear, and EV policies have distinct and sometimes offsetting effects, but coordinated policy stacks can reduce energy costs, increase GDP, and lower emissions, with substantial regional variation in household energy burdens across U.S. Census Divisions. The second paper, "Local Competition in Public DC Fast Charging," exploits the decommissioning of over 200 fast chargers and finds modest but statistically significant local price increases in nearby areas, with effects dissipating beyond roughly 10 miles, suggesting localized competition within a spatially segmented market. The third paper, "Geopolitical Uncertainty and Upstream Reconfiguration in EV Battery Supply Chains," uses longitudinal network analysis of major EV battery firms and finds that geopolitical and policy uncertainty drives diversification of first-tier suppliers, while deeper supply chain tiers remain geographically concentrated around a small set of central suppliers. The fourth paper, "How effective are non-targeted policies in accelerating clean energy infrastructure deployment under changing federal policy priorities?" uses the federal Opportunity Zone program as a quasi-experimental setting and finds that designated areas experience faster growth in EV charging infrastructure than comparable areas. Effects vary by state policy context and are partly driven by spatial reallocation toward designated tracts, raising distributional concerns. 

These four papers feature a wide range of methodologies and analytical approaches that include simulation with national energy models, quasi-experimental methods for policy evaluation, longitudinal network analysis, and economic modeling of supply and demand with both structural and reduced form estimation.   

The panel features speakers at various career stages, including early career scholars, with diverse intellectual and disciplinary backgrounds ranging from economics, policy analysis, operations management, geography, and engineering systems. The panel participants, including the chair and discussants, also feature institutional diversity, including public and private institutions.

Policy Area

• Natural Resource, Energy, and Environmental Policy

Chair

• Omar Isaac Asensio, Georgia Institute of Technology

Discussants

• Kyungmin Lee, Adelphi University

• Siddhi Doshi, Harvard University

Organizer

• Yifan Liu, Harvard University

Individual Presentations

• Technology and Policy Stacking for Energy Affordability Across the U.S. - Presenting Author: Marilyn A. Brown, Georgia Institute of Technology

• Geopolitical Uncertainty and Upstream Reconfiguration in EV Battery Supply Chains - Presenting Author: Linyi Guo, The University of Manchester

• How Effective Are Non-targeted Policies in Accelerating Clean Energy Infrastructure Deployment Under Changing Federal Policy Priorities? - Presenting Author: Yifan Liu, Harvard University