New Research on Long-term Trends in Income Poverty in the United States

Session Submission Type: Panel

Abstract

This session presents three new original research papers using historical Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) income-poverty data combiled by Columbia University Center on Poverty and Social Policy. This data was originally analysed in a Journal of Policy Analysis and Management article in 2015 led by Liana Fox, at the time a doctoral candidate in Social Work at the Columbia University School of Social Work. This data has been publicly available on the Center on Poverty and Social Policy's website at Columbia for use by researchers, and has recently been harmonized and made available for easier download with other Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement data hosted by the University of Minnesota's IPUMS website. One purpose of this panel is to showcase what is now more easily available to the full research community and provide new research examining different trend analyses using the data.

The first paper, by Christopher Wimer, Sophie Collyer, and Ryan Vinh re-analyzes long-term trends in SPM poverty taking advantage of various definitions of poverty thresholds and the resources concept in comparison to those thresholds. The paper provides a comprehensive assessment of those trends across different types of thresholds, with and without various taxes and transfers included in the resource concept, by different income-to-needs thresholds, and across a wide array of demographic subpopulations. 

The second paper, by Bob Greenstein and Danilo Trisi asks: How have the level and depth of U.S. poverty changed from 1967 to 2023, and what role have changes in government safety-net programs played in these trends? The paper investigates the historical trajectory of poverty rates, the poverty gap, deep poverty rates (below 50 percent of the poverty line) and deep poverty gaps, exploring how policy expansions and retrenchments have affected different demographic groups.

The third paper, by Jesse Ezra Shircliff, Tom Mueller, Matthew S. Brooks, and Regina S. Baker interrogates industrial restructuring as pivotal to poverty in the United States. Relative to prior research, this study makes four innovative contributions to the study of poverty among workers: (a) a historical perspective over four decades; (b) more detailed scrutiny of industrial change; (c) comparisons of rural and urban settings; and (d) an incorporation of taxes and transfers via the Supplemental Poverty Measure. 

Together the papers provide novel learnings about long-term SPM poverty trends in the United States over 5+ decades.

Policy Area

• Poverty and Income Policy

Chair

• Daniel Salgado, Columbia University

Discussants

• Liana E Fox, U.S. Census Bureau

• Jose Pacas, Constellation Lab

Organizer

• Christopher Wimer, Columbia University

Individual Presentations

• A comprehensive analysis of long-term trends in SPM poverty in the United States, 1967 to 2024 - Presenting Author: Christopher Wimer, Columbia University

• Progress and Stagnation: U.S. Poverty, Deep Poverty, and the Safety Net, 1967–2023 - Presenting Author: Danilo Leandro Trisi, Georgetown University

• Industry, Work-Based Social Policies, and Poverty Among Workers in Rural and Urban America, 1981-2024 - Presenting Author: J. Tom Mueller, University of Kansas

• The Intergenerational Transmission of Financial Shocks on Disparities in Economic Stability - Presenting Author: Manita C Rao, University of Southern California