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Brexit or Block it? Party and Demographic EU divisions in Northern Ireland

Thu, August 31, 12:00 to 1:30pm, Hilton Union Square, Nob Hill 4 & 5

Abstract

Given its status as the only region containing a land frontier with a European Union from which the UK is departing, Northern Ireland is potentially greatly affected by withdrawal. Notwithstanding continuing intergovernmental bilateral cooperation, there are likely impacts upon the 1998 Good Friday Agreement; the status of the border and prospects for cross-border trade. Nationalist political leaders have pledged to challenge Brexit insofar as this may be possible. Northern Ireland did not offer consent for EU withdrawal, as the region voted by 56 to 44 per cent to remain.

Drawing upon extensive recent election survey evidence, this paper examines the breadth and depth of Europhile and Eurosceptic sentiment in Northern Ireland. It assesses the importance of party support as a variable in influencing Remain or Leave attitudes relative to demographic and social class factors; explores the salience of the unionist versus nationalist divide in shaping pro- and anti-EU sentiment and analyses the arguments offered by the Remain and Leave sides during and since the referendum campaign. What motivations underpin these arguments and how have electors responded?

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