Is Timing Everything? The Performance Effects of Party Leadership Changes

• In Event: Election Timing: Causes and Consequences

Abstract

No political party changes its leader in order to fail. New leaders are expected to help party’s electoral standing. Yet, the electoral boost the party gets from a new leader depends on the timing of the leadership change. If parties time their leadership change wrong, and replace their leader when they were not supposed to, or fail to change their leader when the circumstances call for a leadership turnover, they may suffer electoral losses. Using original data on leadership changes in nine advanced democracies between 1980 and 2013, we test how the timing of party leadership changes affect parties’ electoral standing.

Authors

• Zeynep Somer-Topcu, University of Texas at Austin

• Daniel Weitzel

• Hande Mutlu-Eren, New York University