Post-Racial Politics? Racial Resentment and US House Elections, 2010-2016

• In Event: Racial Animus and the 2016 Election

Abstract

While many heralded the election of President Obama as the beginning of a "post-racial" period of politics in the United States, there has been little research testing whether this is true in congressional elections. Prior research examining whether white racial resentment hurts black candidates has had mixed results. Given the unique salience of race and racial politics in the Obama presidency, I test whether racial resentment, as measured by two questions in the 2010-2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies, affects the likelihood of white voters voting for and approving of House incumbents. Additionally, I test whether black incumbents suffer electorally and have more negative job approval ratings when voters have high levels of racial resentment. My initial findings suggest that high racial resentment negatively affects a white voter's likelihood of voting for and approving of a Democratic incumbent. I also find that black Democratic incumbents fare worse among high resentment voters when considering vote likelihood, but not job approval.

Author

• Isaac Hale, University of California, Davis