Understanding Dynamics of Competition in Top Two Primaries

• In Event: Modifications to State & Local Electoral Rules

Abstract

Electoral rules guide who runs for office, how campaigns are conducted, who gets to vote, and ultimately who governs. Changes to electoral rules provide an opportunity to better understand these important dynamics of American elections. In this project, I examine the significance of a new development in an electoral institution: using a top two primary for state level elections in Washington State. Under this system, all candidates for office, regardless of party affiliation, appear on the same ballot, and the top two vote getters move on to the general election.
Currently, there are two states using a top two primary system: Washington and California. Washington began using this system in 2008, and California began using it in 2012. In California, the top two primary has been controversial and divisive, which has overshadowed a system which had been quietly working in Washington. Washington is an ideal arena to study the top two primary for three key reasons. First, Washington has been using the top two primary for longer, meaning there has been a longer timeframe to observe patterns. Second, Washington has multi-member districts, which allows for the creation of a larger dataset. And finally, there are clear geographic and partisan divisions in the state, which allows me to observe how different parties and constituencies have handled the top two primary.
In Washington, the impetus for this reform is premised on the idea that greater competition in elections provides a better means to hold elected officials accountable.
Electoral competition is widely considered to be a key indicator of a healthy democracy. However, American elections, especially for lower level offices are often highly uncompetitive, with incumbent candidates winning easily. In this project, I seek to understand changing dynamics of electoral competition with the implementation of the top two primary. Are elections more competitive with the top two primary and in what ways? In order to test this question, I develop a new index of electoral competition. This index examines key components of competition, including the vote percentage of the winning candidate, and how many candidates appeared on the ballot. I will analyze State House elections from 2006 to 2016 (2006 will serve as a control year) to show changing dynamics of electoral competition since the implementation of the top two primary.
Nearly every study about the top two primary has been conducted in California. This study of Washington will provide an important discussion point to many of the conclusions scholars are drawing from this reform in California. Further, this project will provide important data for the growing literature on top two primaries.

Author

• Emily Schnurr, Northern Arizona University