Civilian Victimization, Ethnic Targeting, and Conflict Escalation

• In Event: The Determinants of Conflict Escalation

Abstract

Intra-state conflicts between state forces and opposition movements often cause considerable harm to civilian populations, much of which results from direct attacks against noncombatants. While many studies provide insights on the causes of civilian victimization, we know little about how such violence affects the escalation dynamics of armed conflicts. Similarly, previous research on conflict onset has been largely limited to structural variables, both theoretically and empirically. Moving beyond these static approaches, this paper assesses how state-led civilian victimization affects the likelihood of conflict onset, and how civilian targeting by state and non-state actors affects the escalation of low-intensity conflicts into major civil wars. Relying on a novel dataset capturing the ethnic identity of civilian victims of targeted violence on a global scale, we find preliminary evidence that the state-led civilian victimization of particular ethnic groups increases the likelihood that the latter become involved in armed conflict, and that civilian targeting by either side affects the escalation from low intensity conflicts to civil war.

Authors

• Livia Isabella Schubiger, London School of Economics

• Lars-Erik Cederman, ETH Zurich

• Francisco Villamil, ETH Zurich

• Simon Hug, University of Geneva