Costly Exits: Prosecution of Former Leaders in Democratic Regimes

• In Event: Threats to Executive Legitimacy

Abstract

One of the hallmarks of democratic politics is that leaders lose power through established rules. A growing literature suggests that leaving office voluntarily hinges in part on the expectation of benign treatment from successors; and that successors generally comply. But a number of successor administrations have launched investigations, and in some cases, trials, against ex-presidents and prime ministers, with allegations ranging from falsifying documents to embezzlement of government funds to illegal wiretapping and more. To cite just a few examples, ex-prime ministers in Japan and Israel, and ex-presidents in South Korea, Guatemala, Taiwan and the Philippines have been convicted since 1970, and several have been incarcerated and/or fined for infractions committed during their term in office. A number of others have been investigated, have had their assets frozen or seized, and have been subject to incarceration, even without a trial.

Our paper analyzes the conditions that prompt the targeting of former presidents and PMs. We focus on three types of mechanisms that can affect the odds of prosecution: the potential benefits for the successor administration; institutions that afford the successor more or less latitude to pursue a case; and elements of the former leader’s record that might make him or her more vulnerable to being pursued. We distinguish between longstanding and new democracies, since the institutions and norms that tend to protect leaders in established democratic regimes may be underdeveloped in newer ones. Thus ex-presidents and prime ministers in new democracies may be at higher risk of being targeted.

We rely on a new, global dataset on the investigation, trial and conviction of former leaders from 1970 through 2010 to test these arguments.

The results can contribute to two major streams of research in comparative politics, on the implications of leader turnover; and on the nature of accountability in new versus established democracies.

Authors

• Donna Bahry, Pennsylvania State University

• Young Hun Kim, North Carolina Wesleyan College