¿Anomalies, or Irregularities? The Evolving Quality of Mexican Elections

• In Event: Democracy’s Legitimacy at Risk: Critical Perspectives from Mexico

Abstract

This paper explores the evolving quality of Mexican federal elections, by assessing the results of the nine electoral processes organized by the Instituto Federal/Nacional Electoral (IFE/INE) between 1991 and 2015. It identifies the ballot boxes that deviate from normal statistical distributions and distinguishes electoral inconsistencies (randomly distributed human errors without political bias) from hypothetical electoral irregularities (partisan biased electoral inconsistencies) in order to locate potentially fraudulent practices or deliberate manipulations of the results. The systematic exploration of inconsistencies (arithmetic errors, changing figures between preliminary and definitive results, unusual turnout rates, hegemonic or unanimous voting behavior, atypical rates of null or blank votes, margins of victory lower than null votes, et cetera) seeks to create a comprehensive typology. The paper also tests if there is an association between different types of inconsistencies, and if they correlate with other potentially relevant sociodemographic indicators (size, density, urbanity, alphabetization, wealth, health, migration, fecundity, et cetera). How generalized/exceptional are the diverse types of inconsistencies in Mexico, and how have they changed over the last twenty-five years? ¿Are the spatially concentrated in particular areas of the territory? ¿Do they have particular partisan biases, and how important are their potential political effects?

Author

• Willibald Sonnleitner, El Colegio de Mexico