Undermining Democracy: Modes and Sequences of Autocratization from 1900 to Today

• In Event: Freedom and V-Dem: Lessons from the Varieties of Democracy Project(s)

Abstract

Since the turn of the century a number of countries across the world have been suffering from democratic regression. In many countries, ruling elites are driving such autocratization processes through the gradual adaptation of illiberal practices for example in Turkey or Russia. This phenomenon was less known in the 20st century, where autocratization commonly entailed sudden changes in political leadership. In other countries, increasing mass support for illiberal political parties (Hungary) and populist leaders (US) undermines democratic practices. This paper dissects current and historical autocratization processes with new data from Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) for 177 countries. Based on V-Dem’s 350 factual and expert-coded indicators and indices on various aspect of democracy, we present the first comprehensive empirical overview of modes and patterns of autocratization from 1900 to today. Furthermore – unlike prior work – we also include autocratization processes in already authoritarian regimes in our analysis. Finally, based on novel sequencing methods, we shed light on how autocratization processes typically unfold. This allows us to identify institutional characteristics of countries vulnerable to autocratization and how some democracies have become more resilient to such challenges than others.

Authors

• Anna Luehrmann, University of Gothenburg

• Staffan I. Lindberg, University of Gothenburg