Turnout, Competitiveness and Candidate Policy Choices in Off-Year Elections:

• In Event: Who Votes?

Abstract

Our paper focuses on the nature and implications of the dramatically different levels of turnout in presidential and off-year elections, with an emphasis on the representativeness of voters. We document the demographic and policy preference differences between voters and nonvoters in off-year and on-year elections below, and then examine how the political characteristics of the district and the policy positions offered by candidates in these elections increase the representativeness of voters in off-year elections. We use data from the American National Election Studies, 1974-2012, the US Census Bureau Current Population Survey and Catalist (validated) data on voter turnout to compare voters and nonvoters by election type (presidential vs. off-year), estimate multivariable models of turnout by election type, and assess the extent to which the correlates of turnout and the representativeness of voters differ between off-year and presidential elections.

Authors

• Jan E. Leighley, American University

• Jonathan Nagler, New York University