No Republican, No Vote: Roll-off Voting Under the Top-two Primary System

• In Event: The Effects of Electoral System Rules

Abstract

In 2012, California adopted the top-two primary system, where all candidates, regardless of party affiliation run against each other and the top two vote-getters move on to the general election. Supported by many politicians and most voters, one intent of the new primary was to help elect more moderate candidates. Yet, in some districts, the general election now pits two candidates from the same party against each other, such that voters in the other party are unable to vote for a copartisan candidate. Using data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, I find that voters without a copartisan candidate on the ballot are more likely to roll-off and opt out of voting in that race, instead of voting for the “lesser of two evils” and selecting the more ideologically proximate candidate. Levels of roll-off for voters without a copartisan candidate are 20 percent greater than roll-off rates for voters who are able to vote for a copartisan candidate. Overall roll-off is ten percent higher in races featuring two candidates from the same party. These results help explain existing work demonstrating that the top-two primary did not produce more moderate representatives.

Author

• Colin Andrew Fisk, Indiana University