Number of Alternatives, Ballot Structure, and Voter Turnout

• In Event: Electoral Systems and Voting Rules

Abstract

This study will examine how the number of alternatives in an electoral district interacts with ballot structure to produce different levels of turnout. It addresses two puzzles of voter turnout. First, many studies report a negative or null link between the number of parties and turnout. This is a paradox considering the apparently strong positive effect of proportional representation on voter participation. Second, studies show that turnout is lower in electoral systems where the voters may cast a personal vote, particularly in open list PR systems with preference voting for individual candidates. It is unclear if this is due to less overall campaign mobilization in electoral districts or due to greater complexity of choice in the presence of multiple party lists and individual candidates. Individual-level data from Modules 1–4 of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) are used. The study combines individual-, district-, and country-level data within a multilevel modeling framework. Voter turnout is the dependent variable and measured at the individual level. By interacting the number of party lists or candidates at the district level with ballot structure, this study uncovers interesting interaction effects. Turnout increases with rising number of political alternatives in proportional representation systems with open ballots. A greater electoral supply, and increased aggregate mobilization efforts, appear to compensate for otherwise less coordinated and effective mobilization in candidate-centered electoral systems. In contrast, the relationship between number of alternatives and turnout is negative in proportional representation systems with closed or ordered ballots. This is in line with previous research, which shows that turnout is depressed in too large and fragmented party systems.

Author

• Peter Söderlund, Åbo Akademi University