Field Experimental Evidence that Electoral Closeness Affects Whether People Vote

• In Event: Field Experimental Studies of Registration, Turnout, and Vote Choice

Abstract

Some canonical models predict that the closeness of an electoral contest should affect turnout rates, with a greater chance of being pivotal expected to increase a potential voter’s propensity to vote. The majority of observational analyses conclude that closer elections are in fact associated with higher levels of participation, but these studies suffer from a number of potential problems in drawing a causal link between electoral competitiveness and the decision to turn out (e.g., their frequent reliance on an ex-post measure of closeness, usually the election results, as a means of proxying for ex-ante perceptions of closeness). Laboratory experiments yield results consistent with this expectation but raise concerns about external validity, especially given that field experimental work generally finds limited effects attributed to stressing the competitiveness of the contest. We seek to clarify this relationship through a large-scale, multistate field experiment conducted during the 2014 congressional primary elections. Using two phone scripts that vary the reported closeness of primary contests, we find that the script describing the elections as more competitive has a statistically larger effect on turnout, which, in turn, is also distinct from a standard GOTV message. We find some (but more mixed) evidence for this relationship when messages stressing the closeness of the election are delivered via mail. A subsequent survey experiment gives us leverage to isolate the mechanisms linking the closeness treatments to increased turnout by allowing us to understand whether the treatments solely manipulate the perceived competitiveness of the election or perceptions of other aspects of the election or candidates. The results provide causal evidence that citizens do respond to the closeness of electoral contests and have important implications for our understanding of the factors that lead citizens to vote.

Authors

• Alan Gerber, Yale University

• Gregory Huber, Yale University

• Daniel R. Biggers, University of California, Riverside

• David J. Hendry, London School of Economics