Change for the Better? Rebel Group Origins and Adaptation in Civil Conflicts

• In Event: Shifting Ground: Changes in Territorial Demands and the Location of Violence

Abstract

The civil conflict literature has addressed a range of questions that attempt to draw distinctions between types of rebel groups and their influence on the dynamics of intrastate war. These studies include research concerning the impact of rebel group capacity on civil war, ethnicity as a driver of conflict, and distinctions between conflicts with territory or control of government as the central incompatibility. However, less scholarly attention has been devoted to the initial organization of rebel groups and the differences in the characteristics of rebel groups themselves. This study identifies the inherent, distinctive characteristics of rebel groups that can be identified at their genesis. In doing so, this paper aims to address the following central question – what is the relationship between rebel group origins and their ability to adapt over the course of civil conflicts? Furthermore, what are the particular characteristics of rebel group origins that make adaptation during conflict most likely? The level of militarization and mobilization of rebel groups at their genesis are the fundamental explanatory attributes of rebel origins as they condition rebel groups’ capacity to wage war over time. Militarization captures the degree to which rebel groups possess a legitimate military infrastructure – the presence of professional soldiers with access to weaponry, experience with insurgency as a splinter of a rebel group or government military faction, and economic or military assistance from a foreign power. Mobilization represents the degree of civilian or political infrastructure possessed by a rebel group at its genesis – this includes origins in mass-based political parties, unions, ethnic, religious, or nationalist organizations, and other groups with experience in political or civilian networks. As rebel groups initially coalesce around pre-existing military and/or social-civilian networks, they inherit varying degrees of military capacity and popular support. The proto-organizations from which rebel groups evolve shape the options rebels have at their disposal concerning military tactics, recruitment of fighters, and negotiating with and/or extracting concessions from a regime. These endowments create path dependencies that frame rebel groups’ decision-making and incentive structures. However, some rebel groups have exhibited the ability to adapt and evolve over the course of a conflict. Thus, this study argues that the ability of groups to “overcome” initial deficiencies in military capacity or popular mobilization is heavily influenced by their initial construction. Which origins attributes make a group more likely to adapt during conflict by expanding its military capacity or developing a political/civilian apparatus within its organization? Conversely, which group characteristics are associated with the decay of group militarization and mobilization, leading highly developed groups to weaken? Groups that emerge with a multi-dimensional, diversified membership will be better positioned to acclimate to dynamic conflict conditions and transform their organization accordingly. I hypothesize that groups with origins in mass-based civilian organizations such as political parties and ethnic or nationalist movements will be the most likely to successfully adapt. Those groups with origins of a less diverse nature, such as a former military faction, will be more likely to experience group decay. Rebel adaptation is operationalized here as the change from rebel group origin to intra-war military and mobilization capacity. Quantitative analyses are conducted utilizing an original dataset encompassing all rebel groups between 1946-2011. This study can benefit conflict management efforts via the identification of rebel groups that are most likely to adapt and survive costly and prolonged conflicts. Finally, this project can augment future civil conflict research by broadening our understanding of rebel group organization and its influence upon rebel behavior and decision-making.

Author

• Michael W Widmeier, University of North Texas