Party Change and Political Generations in the Lone Star State

• In Event: Poster Session: Representation and Electoral Systems and Poster Session: Political Organizations and Parties
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Political Organizations and Parties

Abstract

Texas has been a reliable Republican state in presidential elections since 1980. By 2002 the state completed the transformation from a one party Democratic state to a one-party Republican state. This transformation has led to Texas becoming a key state for the Republican party. If the Democratic party were to become competitive at the state-wide level in Texas it would have national implications for the US party system as the Republican party would lose a large and reliable state. Is it realistic to expect change in Texas party competition?

Demographics in Texas are changing and the states ethnic and racial minority groups are now a majority of the population. In addition, the non-Hispanic white population is aging and being replaced by a much smaller cohort of whites. In the 2016 presidential election Hilary Clinton lost to Donald Trump by 9%-points. While this was a large loss, it was a major improvement over Barack Obama's 16%-point loss in 2012. Does this result indicate the transformation in Texas has begun?

The proposed research will examine party identification in Texas by examining state demographic data, and comparing political generations and racial/ethnic groups. Individual level survey data from 1995, 2004, and 2016 will be used for the analyses. Initial findings from the 2016 surveys suggest that younger white Texans are less Republican than older white Texans, while non-white Texans are more likely to identify as Democrats. Looking back at 1995 and 2004 data indicates that younger white Texans from those surveys are more or equally Republican as older whites. These initial findings suggest that Texas may be entering a transition phase as older white Texans are replaced by younger voters who are less Republican and from racial/ethnic minority groups (primarily Latino).

Authors

• Juan Carlos Huerta, Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi

• Beatriz Cuartas, George Washington University, Graduate School of Political Management