Individual Submission Summary
Share...

Direct link:

A Motion of No Confidence: Weak Leadership and Rebel Group Fragmentation

Sat, September 1, 8:00 to 9:30am, Marriott, St. Botolph

Abstract

When are rebel groups at risk of splintering into competing factions? Evidence from past insurgencies—such as those in Liberia, South Sudan, and Northern Ireland—suggests that rebel fragmentation reflects a belief among a set of group members that their leadership is incapable of achieving group objectives. A motion of no confidence. In this study, I argue that this belief—and, subsequently, a rebel group's risk of fragmentation—is especially informed by the decisions made by group leaders with respect to resource allocation and military strategy. As such, rebel leaders who fail to manage effectively in these areas are likely to suffer fragmentation. To substantiate this theory, I build on the premise that rebel leaders are not created equal; indeed, they vary considerably in their capacities for leadership. With this in mind, I conceptualize rebel leaders along two relevant dimensions: their prior military experience and their primary motive for conflict. I posit two expected relationships: (1) rebel groups with leaders who have prior military experience will be more successful on the battlefield and, therefore, are less susceptible to fragmentation; and (2) rebel groups with leaders motivated by personal profit are defined by weaker loyalty norms and, therefore, are more prone to fragmentation than those groups with leaders motivated by a public good. Using an original dataset, I investigate the relationship between rebel leadership type and two related outcomes: the occurrence and the timing of rebel group fragmentation. All analyses are conducted with a leader-year unit of analysis on a sample of over 250 rebel leaders and more than 150 rebel groups active between 1989 and 2014. This study carries important implications for both academic and policy audiences. First, it offers an organizational theory of fragmentation, in which the splintering of a rebel group is related to other group-level dynamics. Second, this study stresses the importance of understanding how variation in leadership shapes organizational resilience to fragmentation.

Author