Autocratic Ruling Parties: Durability, Democratization, and Death

• In Event: The Legacies of Authoritarianism for Political and Economic Development

Abstract

What predicts the durability of autocratic parties? When they fall, what determines if they give in to democratization or to another autocratic regime? This paper introduces and analyzes an original dataset on all autocratic ruling parties from 1940 to 2015, including their founding origins, modes of gaining power, and styles of governance. Using a multinomial logit model, the paper predicts the durability and different end paths of autocratic parties. A major finding is that parties with features that positively predict their success within democracy are more likely to democratize. This empirically validates a common theory about parties' motives regarding democratic change. The paper has important implications for understanding autocratic durability, parties, political instability, and democratization.

Author

• Michael K. Miller, George Washington University