Backsliding Through “Democratic” Transitions

• In Event: Debating Causes of Democratization Failures

Abstract

In this paper, we consider how and when regimes undergoing political transitions transform into regimes that have fewer democratic qualities than those from which they emerged. Or, to put it differently, when do transitions result not simply in re-autocratization, but deepened autocracy? The paper primarily examines the experiences of the Arab transitions following the 2011 uprisings, focusing on Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. In doing so, it draws on unique survey data, interviews conducted with domestic and international stakeholders from 2011-2017, and secondary data. We argue that the nature of the party system plays an important role in backsliding during transitions. We conclude by juxtaposing the Arab transitions with those from Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, considering how historical sequences in socio-economic development, in turn, had impacted these party systems. The paper contributes to the emerging literature on backsliding by focusing on backsliding in the face of seemingly democratic transitions, an area that is largely overlooked in the current literature.

Authors

• Ellen M. Lust, University of Gothenburg

• David Waldner, University of Virginia