Is Civil War Focal? Expectations about Major-Power Intervention

• In Event: Understanding Counterinsurgency

Abstract

What is the effect of international interventions on the likelihood of civil war? We develop a structural model of civil war onset and subsequent major-power intervention in which (a) free-riding and coordination incentives create multiple equilibria among potential interveners and (b) rebel groups anticipate these strategic issues when initiating civil wars. After illustrating how multiple equilibria pose serious challenges to inference when using reduced-form methods, we structurally estimate the model using civil war and intervention data, where we are able to either remain agnostic about or estimate the equilibrium selection mechanism. After estimating the model, we use the parameters to uncover the strategic nature of major-power competition and conduct a series of counterfactual exercises to examine the effect of interventions on the prevalence of civil wars throughout the world.

Authors

• Michael Gibilisco, California Institute of Technology

• Sergio Montero, University of Rochester