Politician and Party Strategies in Africa

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

More than twenty years after third wave transitions, most countries in sub Saharan Africa now hold regular elections. Indeed, several hundred multi-party elections have been held in 46 of the 49 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa since a wave of democratization swept across the region in the early 1990s. Despite the regularization of elections, in most countries we do not observe “democratic deepening.”

This panel seeks to understand political engagement and representation in the context of political continuity. More than two decades after the introduction of multi-party elections –African elections are still highly presidential systems, populated by many of the same actors who competed in the single party era. What are the drivers of political continuity? How do citizens engage with political parties in this context?

Together these papers provide an important overview of cross-national trends as they relate to parties, elite behavior, and partisanship in sub Saharan Africa. They highlight drivers of political stasis that may generate mass discontent with electoral democracy, but also opportunities for citizens' engagement and change.

Papers by Arriola and Meng, Brossier, and van de Walle and Bleck examine political continuity through the lens of political leaders and political parties. The paper by Harding and Michelitch considers the factors that affect partisanship in this context. Arriola and Meng show how incumbents strategically rotate ministerial appointments to coopt their opponents and weaken opposition. Through a formal model, they show that this dynamic induces opposition forces to fracture, as opposition politicians prefer to compete for office independently rather than coalescing through established parties, given the possibility of a cabinet position. Employing original data on ministerial cabinets in 36 African countries, they show that a greater rate of pre-electoral cabinet reshuffling is associated with a larger number of opposition candidates in presidential and legislative elections.

Brossier explores the processes of familial transfer of leadership and power, which are common in Africa and across the world. Dynastic politics stretch the limits of the democratic model, as they contradict its underlying assumptions on merit and representation of interests. Does the capture of political parties by a family jeopardize the democratization process? How does the formation of political dynasties shape new forms of political competition? First, this paper maps political dynasties in the world since 1945. Second, it presents the hereditary monopolizing of political power index she developed to compare African countries in a worldwide perspective and in the longue durée. It evaluates the role and sources of legitimacy and authority of political leaders who are implementing a familial transmission of political power.

Bleck and van de Walle explore the the role and evolution of political parties in sub Saharan Africa. They trace party origins and strategies to the post-independence era and introduce three broad patterns that characterize most party systems in the multi-party era: the continuity in political actors from from the post independence era, the fact that few old single parties have been able to survive losses in the multi-party era, and the emergence of a modal party system – a party with a supra legislative majority and few viable opposition parties. They conclude with an exploration of new trends in party politics such as the entry of populist and outsider candidates.

Harding and Michelitch explore factors affecting the development of partisanship across Africa. They consider three types of determinants of partisanship (1) new regime trajectories -- democratic regime stability, electoral volatility, and presence of liberation parties; (2) party mobilization tactics more tightly linking certain groups to parties – co-ethnics with party leaders and rural voters, and (3) large individual asset gaps to navigate politics characteristic of low-income contexts based on: gender and education. Experience with democracy, experience with a liberation party, rural dwelling, male gender, and education are associated with higher likelihood of partisanship. Co-ethnicity with a party leader is not a significant determinant. Finally, while electoral volatility does not decrease partisanship on average, it significantly exacerbates gender and education gaps.

Sub Unit

• DIVISION 53: African Politics Conference Group

Individual Presentations

• Elite Cooptation and Opposition Fragmentation in Electoral Authoritarian Regimes - Leonardo R. Arriola, University of California, Berkeley; Anne Meng, University of Virginia

• Political Parties and Electoral Competition: Continuity in Change - Nicolas van de Walle, Cornell University; Jaimie Bleck, University of Notre Dame

• Hereditary and Electoral Politics in Africa: Mapping Political Dynasties - Marie Brossier, Université Laval

• Partisanship in Africa - Kristin Grace Michelitch, Vanderbilt University; Robin Harding, University of Oxford

Chair

• Jaimie Bleck University of Notre Dame

Discussant

• Lisa Mueller Macalester College