Globalization and Economic Voting: Implications for Forecasting

• In Event: Political Forecasting at the Cutting Edge

Abstract

Globalization, contrary to conventional wisdom, can strengthen the linkage between the economy (across-border benchmarked measure) and the vote and, as a result, facilitate electoral accountability by enriching available information to public. In the pre-globalization era, it was not easy for ordinary citizens to assess domestic economic conditions in a global or comparative setting in part because they were less exposed
to information on the economic performance of other countries. However, globalization, particularly economic integration, brings great sources for comparison in people's mind in the form of direct engagements and media coverage. Eventually, this will render voters to evaluate their national economy relative to other countries' economic performance. By using original data from news media in 22 different languages from 33 democracies since the 1980s, this research demonstrates that relative economic performance significantly affects citizens’ vote choice when their economy is highly integrated into the world market.

Author

• Brandon Beomseob Park, The College of New Jersey