The Generational Cycles of American Politics 1952-2016

• In Event: Poster Session: Political Organizations and Parties & Elections and Voting Behavior
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Elections and Political Behaviour

Abstract

The generation one comes of age politically is an important determinant in one’s political identity. Though a political generation gap is not a perpetual feature of the American political landscape, one’s generation can be a noteworthy influence on partisan and ideological leanings. The political environment experienced by successive generations as they have come of age politically influences political attitudes throughout one’s life. Not only may there be a divergence between different generations’ vote in a particular election, but also there exists the possibility of long-term generational effects on political behavior. The generation in which one comes of age politically can play an important role in structuring one’s political views their entire life. The result is that different generations have distinct political leanings that they will maintain over their lifetimes.

Utilizing data collected by the American National Election Studies (ANES) from 1952-2016, this study will conduct cohort analysis to compare differences in generational presidential vote and ideological preferences over time. The generations will be compared from both a simultaneous time perspective where the generations overlap in the American polity at the same time as well as a life-cycle perspective where differences between the generations are compared by presidential election cycle after the respective generation enters the electorate. Two modes of comparison will be employed: one comparing the generations normally (non-adjusted) and another differentiating the generations relative to the rest of the electorate at that time. A binary logic regression will also be utilized to differentiate the relative importance of each generation in every presidential election from 1952-2016.

The findings suggest that the generational divide in American politics today is unprecedented. The youngest generation of American adults—the so-called Millennial Generation—have developed distinct political leanings that are significantly to the left of older generations. Since entering the electorate in significant numbers in 2004, Millennials have voted significantly more Democratic for president than any other generation. Although there is a stereotype that younger Americans are more liberal than older Americans are, this is not necessarily the case. In fact, prior to the Millennials, the only other youngest generation of voters since 1972 that was notably more Democratic in its presidential vote preferences were the Baby Boomers in 1972, who supported George McGovern in much stronger numbers than older generations. The Baby Boomer Democratic preference, however, was short lived: since 1972 the generation has consistently been one of the most Republican generations. Thus, before the Millennials there tended to be little difference between the generations in vote choice, and the youngest generation was not consistently the most Democratic leaning. At the end of the Twentieth Century, in fact, it was more accurate to view the country’s oldest citizens—the Greatest Generation—as voters whose memories of the Great Depression and World War II lead them to have a lasting faith in the government activism and those more supportive of the Democratic Party. In the 1996 and 2000 presidential elections, for example, the Greatest Generation was actually the generation most likely to vote Democratic.

Generational replacement occurs when a new (mainly young) citizens enter the eligible electorate and other (mainly older) voters die off. This allows aggregate partisan change to occur even with people maintaining their initial party identification throughout their political life cycle. Given the different generational political leanings, generational replacement in the electorate has the potential to markedly change future political preferences. Contemporary generational replacement in the American electorate is extremely consequential because of the partisan and ideological differences between the oldest and youngest American voters. Given Millennials’ left-leaning politics, generational replacement would probably have an important influence of American politics regardless of whomever these voters were replacing in the electorate. The Silent Generation that is currently being replaced in the electorate, however, has in recent years emerged as considerably the most Republican and conservative generation in contemporary American politics. Conservative and Republican-leaning Americans are thus currently being replaced in the electorate by relatively liberal and Democratic-leaning voters. The Millennial Generation thus has the potential to alter the course of American politics.

Author

• Patrick I. Fisher, Seton Hall University