Partisan Patterns, Electoral Shifts: Gubernatorial & Midterm Elections 1998-2018

• In Event: US State Parties

Abstract

Midterm elections are often referenda on the party in power, and the 2018 midterms fit that pattern in certain respects, while seemingly defying it in others. But do patterns of partisan engagement on the national level translate to state level races? This paper looks at competitive gubernatorial races in five states (WI, MI, MD, FL, GA) in 2018 and assesses shifts in partisan lean, margin, and turnout compared to 2014, and contrasts it with the shifts observable on the congressional level. It then compares the size and direction of these shifts to those following the 2008 and 2000 presidential elections. Using both pre- and post-presidential election years, and controlling for the shifts on the congressional level, it becomes possible both to isolate the impact of partisan enthusiasm gaps and to assess to what extent wave elections ``trickle down“ to state-level elections. Comparisons of the effect of three subsequent non-incumbent presidential elections make it possible to put the 2016 election, widely regarded as an idiosyncratic event, into context and assess whether its impact mirrors that of other contested and emotional electoral events or if it truly is in a league of its own.

Author

• Regina Wagner, University of Alabama