When Do States Apologize for Past Atrocities? Evidence from New Data and Theory

• In Event: Diplomacy and Security

Abstract

When and why do states apologize for atrocities they committed in the past? Many historical crimes continue to severely hurt bilateral economic and diplomatic relations, but states rarely offer official apologies to their victims. Existing literature on the topic is limited to a few cases such as Germany's apologies after World War II. Here we address this topic with new data and theory on state apologies. Firstly, we have collected a new dataset that codes, for every war-crime committed during the 20th century, (a) whether an official apology was offered and (b) the characteristics of that apology. Secondly, we use this dataset to explore what factors explain if and when a state offers an apology to another state. In particular, we hypothesize that two political factors, the relative severity of violations between two states (``balance of violations") and domestic political transitions, will determine apology timing. Our event history analysis and case studies confirm that these political factors explain state apologies better than alternative explanations such as time passed and the relative economic and military power of victims. More broadly, our findings improve our understanding of when states can resolve long-standing hostilities.

Authors

• Kerim Can Kavakli, Bocconi University

• Mohammad Mohsin Hussain, University of Warwick