How to Correct Elite Misperceptions of Public Opinion? Experimental Evidence

• In Event: Understanding Elites Views and Behaviors

Abstract

To be responsive, elected officials have to rely on beliefs about public will. Previous research shows that representatives often have distorted images of the electorate. However, it remains unclear why political elites misperceive voter preferences, and how these constraints can be overcome. I argue that misperceptions result from a combination of unequal exposure and cognitive biases. If elected officials rely on availability heuristics to gauge public preferences, inequalities in political voice can generate distorted images of the electorate. In turn, a systematic tendency to project their own preferences on others – known as social projection – can also hinder the development of accurate beliefs. These arguments are tested in a survey experiment with local elected officials in Switzerland (N=2,917). Subjects were asked to predict the outcome of upcoming referendums in their constituencies after being assigned to different informational nudges designed to avoid availability heuristics and social projection. Referendum results provide local-level measures of voter preferences and allow me to test the effect of the nudges in reducing misperceptions. The findings contribute to our understanding of biases in responsiveness and provide guidance to political actors interested in bolstering the links between voters and their representatives.

Author

• Miguel Maria Pereira, Washington University in St. Louis