The Persistent Effects of Corruption and the Rise of Populism in Italy

• In Event: The Political Economy of Italy

Abstract

The paper studies the long term impact of corruption on trust towards institutions.
Previous studies have demonstrated that exposure to corruption may lower institutional
trust in the short run. Whether those short term effects translate into a persistent effect
is not known. We study the onset of a corruption shock that took place in Italy between
1992 and 1994. Using recent data from the Trustlab project, coordinated by the OECD,
we find that young first time voters exposed to the corruption scandal still today, 25
years later, exert significantly lower institutional trust. A follow up survey reveals that
their exposure to corruption also affected their current voting behavior. In particular,
those young first time voters exposed to the corruption were more likely to vote for populist
parties at the 2018 national elections.

Authors

• Gianmarco Daniele

• Marco Le Moglie, Bocconi University