Climate, Conflict and Social Capital in Africa

• In Event: Climate Change and Conflict

Abstract

Across temporal and spatial scales, adverse climatic conditions have been shown to be associated with increased levels of violent conflict. I test how social capital moderates the relationship between average annual temperature and the number of conflict events in a given year and geographic unit. I find that when mean annual temperature in a given year is one standard deviation higher, violent conflict events increase by 6-14%; for temperature in the prior year, violent conflict events increase by 12 to 25%. Yet I find considerable heterogeneity in this effect across units, related to the level of social capital. When social capital is measured as a function of trust in local government officials or traditional leaders, or as a function of engagement in community meetings and associations, places with higher social capital experience a weaker temperature-conflict link. Whereas grid cell units at the 25th percentile of my community engagement index experience a 4% increase in violent conflict events for every one standard deviation increase in same-year temperature, units at the 75th percentile experience a 9% decrease in conflict for the same temperature increase. Contrary to expectations, when social capital is measured as the quantity of international remittances, places with higher social capital experience a stronger temperature-conflict link. This study begins to explore the potential for building social capital as a way of moderating the temperature-conflict link.

Author

• Garrett Michael Albistegui Adler, Stanford University