Climate-sensitive Armed Conflict Projections for the 21st Century

• In Event: Climate Change and Conflict

Abstract

A crucial step in providing a realistic assessment of potential security implications of climate change is the modelling of projections of climate, vulnerability, and conflict risk. These processes are interlinked, with armed conflict being a major source of climate vulnerability. In this paper, we provide, for the first time, projections of the future trajectories of conflict for the 21st century that incorporate the endogenous relationship of armed conflict and economic vulnerability to climate change impacts. Departing from the conflict projections along the Shared Socio-economic Pathways, we first model economic vulnerability to climate change by estimating each country’s future reliance on the agricultural sector. The model reflects that in the future, dependence on agriculture will generally decrease due to continued global economic growth, but that conflict exposure will in many cases offset this trend. We couple this with projections of future exposure to drought based on climate change scenarios that indicate an increase in frequency and severity of extreme weather events for many regions. Results to be confirmed.

Authors

• Elisabeth Gilmore, Clark University

• Håvard Hegre, Uppsala University

• Kristina Petrova, Uppsala University

• Jonas Nordkvelle, Peace Research Institute Oslo

• Halvard Buhaug, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

• Nina von Uexkull, Uppsala University