Moderation in the Pursuit of Victory May Not Help

• In Event: Campaigns, Elections, and Ideology in Legislative Politics

Abstract

In this paper, I will use data on U.S. House elections since the 1970s to examine the impact of incumbents' ideological positions on election outcomes. A considerable body of theory and evidence suggests that incumbents with relatively extreme ideological positions are punished by voters in general elections. However, recent evidence on the results of House elections indicates that voters are now less concerned with characteristics of local candidates and more concerned with national issues and party control of Congress. If this is the case, then the electoral penalty suffered by incumbents with extreme ideological positions may be diminished or nonexistent.

Author

• Alan I. Abramowitz, Emory University