Determinants of Voters' Volatility

• In Event: How Electoral Rules Shape Parties & Party Systems

Abstract

What affects voters’ decision to switch between parties in two consecutive elections and what determines how far they will depart from their previous preferences? Existing research suggests that the influence of relatively stable social determinants—social class, residence, religiosity—is weakening, while the effects of dynamic rational factors are increasing. However, we know little about how the interaction of these two groups of factors affects voting preferences. In this paper, I rely on poliheuristic theory and develop a model that explains voting behavior by capturing the effects of both social determinants and dynamic factors. To empirically test this model, I use the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) database on elections in western democracies between 2006 and 2011. The model allows me to predict the distance of voters’ switching. I argue that voting decision making is a two-stage process: First, social factors predispose voters to specific political block (e.g., left, center, right) thus defining the potential range of switching. Then, dynamic rational choice factors determine to which party within the available range the voter will give preference. Preliminary data analysis supports these two-stage model. This study proposes a new theory of voters’ decision-making process, introduces the concept of block predisposition, and demonstrates its empirical efficiency. 

Author

• Sasha Volodarsky, Northeastern Unviersity