Can Energy System Change Produce Political Change? Evidence from the US

• In Event: Energy and Environmental Policy in Comparative Perspective

Abstract

Scholars of climate policy have recognized the importance of using policy feedback to address a problem as politically difficult as climate change (Levin et al. 2012; Pahle et al. 2017). In particular, scholars have highlighted how policies promoting the growth of green industry might produce political coalitions capable of defending and expanding carbon emissions-reducing policies (Meckling et al. 2015). While this is a potentially powerful mechanism, it has not been demonstrated empirically outside of case studies.

I investigate the degree to which green industrial policies have constructed political interests in the U.S. While climate policy has stagnated at the federal level, state governments have passed, and in some cases ratcheted up, policies supporting the growth of renewable industry. These policies have contributed to a steady growth in the production of renewable energy since the turn of the century. The share of electricity generated using wind and solar has risen from less than 1 percent in 2000 to nearly 8 percent by 2017. To what extent has this generated a corresponding growth in the political activity of renewable industry?

Using aggregated data, I investigate the degree to which growth in renewable electricity generation predicts greater lobbying and campaign contributions from renewables industry in the states and at the national level. I also curate a more granular original data set linking geo-coded electricity generation data to political measures at the Congressional district level. I find preliminary evidence that greater renewable generation in a district leads to greater campaign contributions from green industry to politicians running for Congress in that district. Drawing upon data from the League of Conservation Voters, I also investigate the degree to which building renewable generation in a district influences Congressional votes on environmental issues. Preliminary investigation suggests a null effect.

Author

• Sam Trachtman, University of California, Berkeley