Populism Lite? Immigration and Electoral Politics in New Zealand

• In Event: Populist Exceptionalism in a Populist Political Culture? The Case of New Zealand

Abstract

Until 2017, the comparatively low electoral salience of immigration over the past forty years had been a notable and surprising feature of New Zealand’s politics, particularly given its very high rates of immigration during that period. Around 25% of the population is now born overseas, China and India are the largest source countries of immigrants, and the population share of European New Zealanders is declining quickly. In 2017, however, immigration did begin to feature more prominently in both public opinion and party manifestos. Immigration rose significantly as an issue voters were concerned about and the two major parties, Labour and National, advocated policies designed to reduce immigration levels. Post-election, these parties competed to form a government with the support of New Zealand First, the minor party most closely associated with anti-immigration politics. When the Labour Party won that competition a month after the election, many in the international media were quick to see New Zealand as the latest in a long line of western democracies to succumb to the seemingly inevitable rise of a nativist, anti-immigrant brand of populism.

While it is easy to dismiss this characterisation of the New Zealand Labour Party as nativist anti-immigrant populists – Labour expressed strong support for continued immigration and for those immigrants already living in New Zealand throughout the campaign – the observed increased salience of immigration does raise the question as to whether immigration triggered a ‘populism lite’ reflex in New Zealand in 2017. Drawing on time series data from the New Zealand Election Study this paper examines changes in public opinion about immigration over the previous four elections, and compares public opinion about immigration in New Zealand with that in other countries with comparable immigration experiences. It identifies the specific characteristics of New Zealanders’ concerns about immigration by party preferences, asking how closely these opinions and preferences mirror the European and American experience with anti-immigrant populism, or that of what Moffitt (2017) has called ‘antipodean populism’.

Author

• Kate McMillan, Victoria University of Wellington